- №1330 October 2026· 22 min
Importers Pay Twice
Egypt raised rates to 20% after the pound passed 56 to the dollar, Kenya's inflation hit 7.3%, and oil-exporting Nigeria's naira steadied near ₦1,347. If you import, you pay for oil at the pump and again on your borrowing: re-cost imports and credit this week.
Read edition → - №1116 October 2026· 16 min
Headlines Hide the Squeeze
Kenyan households faced essentials inflation of 8.9% in September against a 6.8% headline, Lagos food inflation reached 34.40%, and fuel costs rose again from Nairobi to Accra. Price, pay and plan on what your customers and staff actually buy, not on the headline. The new Essentials Gap across six markets, five numbers, and the decisions to make this month.
Read edition → - №109 October 2026· 15 min
Buffers Decide Demand
In September Nigeria's PMI rose to 56.4, its highest since February 2022, while Egypt's fell to 47.2, under the same oil shock. Where currency buffers are deep the shock arrives as demand; where they are thin it arrives as cost. The comparative read across all six markets, five numbers, and the decisions to make this month.
Read edition → - №092 October 2026· 10 min
Reserves Beat Rates
Nigeria cut interest rates and its currency got stronger. South Africa raised them and its currency fell. What defends a currency is not the rate, it is the buffer behind it, and Nigeria's reserves just hit an 18-year high of $54.86bn. The comparative read across all six markets, five numbers, and the calls to make this quarter.
Read edition → - №0825 September 2026· 10 min
Cut and Hike
In one week Nigeria cut its policy rate 350 basis points to 23% and South Africa raised its to 7.25%. Africa's cost of capital just split in two, and which side you are on now decides everything. The comparative read across all six markets, five numbers, and the calls to make this week, including one of ours we got wrong.
Read edition → - №0718 September 2026· 9 min
The Real Basket Index
The cost-of-living squeeze has stopped being a shock and become the baseline. This week we introduce the Real Basket Index across all six markets, and the two macro shocks, a firmer dollar and higher oil, now point the same way rather than cancelling out. Where momentum is building, where risk is rising, and three moves to make now.
Read edition → - №0612 September 2026· 8 min
The Average Lies
Headline inflation is cooling across Africa. What your customers actually pay is not — and pricing to the national average will cost you. Nigeria's plate is on fire while the CPI cools; Kenya's daily essentials run at double the headline; Ghana's squeeze moved off the plate onto services. Same word, three economies. Price to the plate, not the print.
Read edition → - №054 September 2026· 8 min
The Window Slams Shut
One week after it opened, both external tailwinds reversed. A blowout US jobs report revived Fed-hike bets and firmed the dollar; US strikes near Hormuz sent Brent back to ~$96. The exact risk we flagged fired — on both hinges at once. If you moved in the window, hold. If you waited, stop chasing it.
Read edition → - №0428 August 2026· 8 min
The Window Reopens
As oil eases and the Fed turns, Africa's external financing window is swinging open — but only for those positioned to climb through. Reformers with stable currencies can tap cheaper hard-currency capital now; domestically, money stays dear where food inflation locks the central bank. Raise while the window is open.
Read edition → - №0321 August 2026· 8 min
Africa Is Building Around Its Bottlenecks
Capital is becoming selective — moving toward the assets that solve physical constraints: energy, industrial inputs, logistics, regional trade. Nigeria put $1.3bn behind steel; Kenya is anchoring a $16–17bn regional refinery; South Africa posted record auto output. Stop treating Africa as one investment cycle.
Read edition → - №0214 August 2026· 8 min
Taxed by Size — Washington just re-sorted African trade
The US Section 301 forced-labour tariffs put a 12.5% duty on Africa's largest exporters — South Africa, Nigeria, Angola, Egypt, Morocco, Algeria — while Kenya and Ghana escaped the list entirely. For the first time, being a big exporter to the US is a liability, not an advantage. With AGOA expiring 31 December, the window to re-route is closing.
Read edition → - №018 August 2026· 7 min
Two Africas — and most operators are trading the wrong one
The map of African trade just split in two. Currency, credit and cost now differ sharply depending on which Africa you operate in — and most businesses are still sourcing, pricing and financing as though the continent were one market. It isn't. This week: how to re-map before the gap widens.
Read edition →