01 · Executive summary
Executive summary
Headline inflation looks calm: it fell in Nigeria and in urban Egypt in September and stayed below 7% in Kenya, Ghana, South Africa and Morocco. The essentials are not calm. In Kenya, food, transport and housing together rose 8.9% in the year to September, 2.1 points above the 6.8% headline. In Nigeria, headline inflation fell to 14.63% in September while food inflation held at 19.59%, and Lagos food inflation reached 34.40%.
This week the pressure moved again. Brent settled at $109.86 on 16 October, after touching $110 for the first time since May. Kenya raised its pump-price caps on 15 October, with kerosene up 14.9%, and Ghana's LPG price floor rose 25% on 16 October. Egypt froze fuel prices to the end of December.
The shift in thinking: your customers and staff live on the essentials rate, not the headline. Set prices, wages and contracts by it.
02 · Market mood
Market mood: energy is moving into the essentials
The single force this week was the oil price reaching household budgets. Brent touched $110 on 16 October for the first time since May, on attacks on Saudi Arabia and on Russian and Ukrainian energy infrastructure.
Kenya
▲ Kerosene +14.9%
Petrol +6.0%, diesel +4.5% · EPRA caps from 15 Oct
Ghana
▲ LPG floor +25%
To GH¢13.87/kg · NPA, from 16 Oct
South Africa
▲ Petrol ≈ +R2.27/l
Projected for 4 Nov · CEF data, 14 Oct
Nigeria
▲ Energy +5.38% m/m
NBS energy sub-index · September
Egypt
■ Fuel prices frozen
Unchanged to end-December · 15 Oct
Morocco
▼ Gasoil −20 centimes
From 16 Oct, after +80 on 1 Oct · butane frozen
Each market passed the cost on differently. Kenya passed most of it through. Ghana passed it into cooking gas. South Africa's next step is already visible in the Central Energy Fund's data. Egypt chose to carry it until January. Morocco's pump prices moved both ways within a fortnight while butane and electricity stayed frozen.
Operator takeaway: list your three largest energy costs, and next to each write the date its price next changes in your market. That calendar, not the oil price, is what to plan around.
03 · The Comparative Read
The Comparative Read: the essentials gap splits Kenya from Morocco
The anchor: Kenya +2.1 points, Morocco −0.7. The Essentials Gap measures how far inflation in food, transport and housing runs above or below the headline, using each country's own official weights. Kenya's essentials ran 2.1 points above its headline in September; Morocco's ran 0.7 points below in August.
Why. Kenya imports its refined fuel and resets pump prices every month, so oil reaches buses and kitchens within weeks: transport inflation was 15.6% and food 9.5% in September. Morocco shields its households. Butane and electricity prices are frozen and road transport is subsidised, and after a large harvest, food prices were 4.2% below a year earlier. Transport there still rose 7.3%, which is where the shield is thinnest.
Six markets, one spectrum. Ordered from the widest squeeze on essentials to the most shielded. Posture is GIA's judgement.
| Market | Latest figure (period) | This week's energy pricing | Posture |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kenya | Essentials 8.9% vs headline 6.8%, gap +2.1 points (Sep, KNBS; GIA calculation) | Pump caps raised from 15 Oct: petrol +KES 12.93, kerosene +KES 28.49 (EPRA) | Wallets and payroll squeezed |
| Nigeria | Food 19.59% vs headline 14.63%; Lagos food 34.40% (Sep, NBS) | Energy sub-index +5.38% on the month (Sep, NBS); naira near ₦1,332 | Headline falling, essentials not |
| Ghana | Headline 5.2%; housing, water and energy 10.3% (Sep, GSS) | LPG price floor +25% from 16 Oct (NPA) | Cooking costs jumping |
| South Africa | Essentials 4.8% vs headline 4.4%, gap +0.4 points (Aug, Stats SA; GIA calculation) | Petrol projected up about R2.27 a litre on 4 Nov (CEF data, 14 Oct) | Transport-led and rising |
| Egypt | Urban CPI 13.9%, up 1.3% on the month (Sep, CAPMAS) | Fuel prices frozen to end-December (15 Oct) | Shielded until January |
| Morocco | Essentials −1.0% vs headline −0.3%, gap −0.7 points (Aug, HCP; GIA calculation) | Gasoil −20 centimes from 16 Oct, after +80 on 1 Oct | Essentials cheaper than average |
Winners: Moroccan non-food sellers; Egyptian fuel-heavy firms, until December. Losers: Kenyan and Ghanaian businesses whose customers spend most of their income on food, transport and cooking fuel; Lagos food sellers; South African delivery fleets.
What should leaders do? Find out which side of the gap your customers live on, and price and pay for that.
- Kenya: give staff a transport allowance reviewed each EPRA cycle; offer customers smaller pack sizes.
- Nigeria: price food lines from your own input costs, not the national headline.
- Ghana: re-cost every product that uses LPG before the next pricing window.
- South Africa: send customers notice of your fuel surcharge before 4 November.
- Egypt: lock fuel-heavy contracts while prices are frozen.
- Morocco: run fourth-quarter promotions on non-food lines while the food bill is lower.
Dates to plan around (scheduled): 21 October, Stats SA September CPI · 29 October, Central Bank of Egypt rate decision · first week of November, Ghana's 2027 budget · 4 November, South Africa's fuel price change · by 14 November, Kenya's next pump-price review · 23 and 24 November, CBN rate decision.
04 · Numbers that matter
Numbers that matter
8.9%
Kenya essentials rate, September 2026
Food 9.5%, transport 15.6%, housing 3.2%, against a 6.8% headline.
Source: GIA calculation from KNBS data
→ Size cost-of-living support to the essentials rate, and make the transport part reviewable.
34.40%
Lagos food inflation, September 2026
National food inflation was 19.59% and the headline 14.63%. A Lagos food business pricing off the headline is underpricing.
Source: NBS
→ Re-cost your top 20 lines from what you paid in the last 30 days.
$109.86
Brent, settle on 16 October 2026
Up 3.7% on the day, after its first touch of $110 since May. The next pump-price reviews in Kenya, Ghana and South Africa will start from here.
Source: December contract
→ Budget your next fuel cycle from today's price, not last month's.
KES 28.49 a litre
Kenya kerosene increase from 15 October
Kerosene now costs KES 219.87 in Nairobi, up 14.9%; petrol rose 6.0% and diesel 4.5%.
Source: EPRA
→ If your customers cook with kerosene, expect their spending to shift from discretionary goods to fuel this month.
+25%
Ghana LPG price floor from 16 October
The floor rose to GH¢13.87 a kilogram. Oil marketers projected the pump price at GH¢20.60, up 18.5%.
Source: NPA
→ Measure gas use per product before you reprice.
05 · The Real Basket
The Real Basket
A note on the Real Basket. Edition №07 launched the Real Basket Index. Its first table mixed different measures in one column: at least one reading was a single category minus the headline, others could not be reproduced from the figures shown, and two markets carried a description instead of a number. It also applied one set of weights to six different economies. From this edition, the Real Basket has two parts: the Essentials Gap, computed each month from every country's own official weights with all the working shown, and street prices reported by readers each week. Readings from the first version are not comparable with the new ones. The original table stays published, unchanged.
Essentials Gap
Official data, reweighted to essentials.
Source: GIA calculation from KNBS, Stats SA and HCP data, using each office's own CPI weights. Full working in the tables below.
| Market | CPI month | Essentials rate | Headline | Gap (points) | Driving category |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenya | September 2026 | 8.9% | 6.8% | +2.1 | Food (transport close behind) |
| South Africa | August 2026 | 4.8% | 4.4% | +0.4 | Transport |
| Morocco | August 2026 | −1.0% | −0.3% | −0.7 | Food |
| Nigeria | September 2026 | Not computed: division rates not accessible this week | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| Egypt (urban) | September 2026 | Not computed: category rates differ between reports | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| Ghana | n/a | Weights pending | n/a | n/a | n/a |
The working. Weights are each statistics office's own, rescaled so the three categories add to 100%. Essentials rate = Σ (weight × category inflation). Gap = essentials rate − headline. Driver = the category with the largest weight × (category inflation − headline) in the direction of the gap.
| Market | Food: weight · inflation | Transport: weight · inflation | Housing, water, electricity, gas: weight · inflation | Source and base |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenya (Sep) | 57.6% · 9.5% | 16.9% · 15.6% | 25.6% · 3.2% | KNBS CPI, February 2019 = 100 |
| South Africa (Aug) | 32.4% · 1.1% | 24.7% · 8.8% | 42.9% · 5.2% | Stats SA CPI, 2023 weights, December 2024 = 100 |
| Morocco (Aug) | 60.3% · −4.2% | 16.1% · 7.3% | 23.5% · 1.4% | HCP CPI, base 2017, 2014 expenditure weights |
Contributions to the gap: Kenya food +1.55, transport +1.48, housing −0.92. South Africa transport +1.09, housing +0.34, food −1.07. Morocco food −2.35, transport +1.23, housing +0.40.
Category mapping: COICOP divisions 01, 07 and 04 in each market; Stats SA publishes division 04 as "housing and utilities" and HCP as "logements, eau, électricité et autres combustibles". Egypt uses the urban series.
Street prices
Street prices: no reports to publish this week.
Operator takeaway: in Kenya, a pay review built on the 6.8% headline will feel like a cut to staff facing 8.9% on essentials. In Morocco the reverse holds for now: non-food sellers have room to win share before the shield thins.
06 · Industries winning and under pressure
Industries winning and under pressure
Winning
- Egypt · logistics and fuel-heavy manufacturing. Fuel prices are frozen to the end of December while Brent sits near $110. Response: lock contracts now, before the next review.
- Morocco · non-food retail and services. Food prices in August were 4.2% below a year earlier, which leaves room in household budgets. Response: put fourth-quarter promotion budgets behind non-food lines.
Under pressure
- Ghana · bakeries, chop bars and food processors using LPG. Pressure: High. The LPG price floor rose 25% on 16 October. Response: measure gas per batch, cut waste, and reprice only gas-heavy lines.
- Kenya · matatus, delivery and logistics. Pressure: High. Diesel rose KES 9.90 a litre on 15 October, with transport inflation already at 15.6%. Response: agree a fuel-indexed fare or delivery charge tied to the EPRA cycle.
- Nigeria · Lagos restaurants and food retail. Pressure: Medium. Lagos food inflation was 34.40% in September. Response: reprice monthly from your own costs and shrink portions before raising headline prices.
07 · Founder decisions
Founder decisions
1 · Kenya · packaging manufacturer, 85 staff, Nairobi
(Illustrative.)
Challenge. Staff want a raise. Headline inflation is 6.8%, but Kenya's essentials rate was 8.9%, and fuel caps rose again on 15 October. A permanent 9% rise would lock in a cost the business may not carry if orders slow.
Decision. Before October payroll, give a modest permanent rise plus a monthly transport allowance, reviewed each time EPRA publishes new caps. Explain the rule to staff in writing. Keep the total within what the business can carry for six months.
Outcome. Staff feel the support where the squeeze is, the transport part falls when fuel does, and payroll is not locked into the oil price.
Work it through: Hiring Check, "Is this the right time to hire?", in the Decision Centre.
2 · Nigeria · catering and packaged-meals business, 30 staff, Lagos
(Illustrative.)
Challenge. Customers read that inflation fell to 14.63% and push back on prices. But Lagos food inflation was 34.40% in September, and ingredient and gas bills rose faster than the menu.
Decision. By 31 October, re-cost the top 20 lines from what was paid in the last 30 days. Raise prices only where the cost gap is largest; trim portions where customers are most price-sensitive. Review prices monthly and quote corporate clients for 30 days at most.
Outcome. Margins rebuilt on real costs, with customers seeing fewer, smaller and better-explained increases.
Work it through: Pricing Pressure Check, "Should I move my prices?", in the Decision Centre.
3 · Egypt · building-materials distributor, 120 staff, Greater Cairo
(Illustrative.)
Challenge. Diesel is the largest cost after stock. Fuel prices are frozen to the end of December, but Brent is near $110 and the freeze has an end date.
Decision. By 15 November, offer key transport contractors fixed rates through March 2027 in exchange for guaranteed volumes. On customer contracts running into 2027, adjust delivery charges only when the official diesel price changes, and by the same percentage. Hold a month of extra cash against a January increase.
Outcome. Delivery costs fixed for the riskiest quarter, customers protected from arbitrary rises, and cash ready if the freeze ends with a jump.
Work it through: Cash Exposure Check, "Where is my cash flow exposed?", in the Decision Centre.
08 · Opportunity radar
Opportunity radar
Kenya · fuel-saving cooking products. Kerosene rose 14.9% to KES 219.87 a litre in Nairobi on 15 October. Households that cook with it now have a sharper reason to cut fuel use. Sellers of efficient stoves, pressure cookers and electric cooking appliances benefit, as do pay-as-you-go lenders. Capture it with small instalment plans and a clear message on how much fuel a product saves a week. The upside: a purchase that pays for itself, and repeat custom through instalments.
→ This week: put a weekly-savings figure, from your own tests, on your price tags.
Morocco · non-food retail and services: a window, not a trend. Food prices in August were 4.2% below a year earlier and essentials 1.0% below. Clothing, furnishing, leisure and restaurant businesses benefit while food is cheap. Promote now, but keep contracts short: transport is already up 7.3% (see S-10-2).
→ This week: move part of your fourth-quarter budget to promotions on non-food lines.
09 · Risk radar
Risk radar: the rate cut may not reach your loan
Likelihood: Medium (40% to 69%) over the next three months. Impact: Medium.
If your plans assume cheaper credit after the CBN cut its policy rate to 23% on 22 September, check them. The CBN described that decision as an operational realignment that "does not constitute a change in the current monetary policy stance". And September's data showed price pressure returning underneath the falling headline: core prices rose 1.11% in the month, after falling 0.06% in August, and the energy sub-index rose 5.38%. If that continues, banks have little reason to cut lending rates far, and the CBN has little reason to cut again on 23 and 24 November.
- Early warning: NBS's October core inflation, month on month; the CBN's published average lending rates; Treasury bill stop rates at the next auctions; the 23 and 24 November MPC decision.
- Mitigation: do not size expansion on a lower loan rate; ask your bank in writing when your rate reprices; lean on supplier credit; repay the most expensive facilities first.
10 · Signals before headlines
Signals before headlines
S-11-1 · Nigeria's underlying inflation has turned
Probability · MediumClaim: NBS's month-on-month core inflation is above 0.5% for October 2026, per NBS. Deadline: 20 November 2026. Probability: Medium.
- Why it matters early: coverage stopped at the falling headline. Underneath, core prices rose 1.11% in September after falling in August, and energy rose 5.38% in one month. A second strong core month would make another rate cut unlikely.
- Affected: Nigeria · borrowers, retailers, landlords and service firms pricing on the headline.
- Watch: NBS's October CPI (expected mid-November); depot petrol and diesel prices; the CBN's 23 and 24 November decision.
- Prepare: keep monthly price reviews; do not commit to price cuts on the strength of the headline.
S-11-2 · South Africa's inflation passes 5%
Probability · MediumClaim: Statistics South Africa's annual CPI inflation is at or above 5.0% for October 2026, per Stats SA. Deadline: 30 November 2026. Probability: Medium.
- Why it matters early: August was 4.4%. Petrol rose by up to R3.33 a litre in October, and Central Energy Fund data on 14 October pointed to about R2.27 more on 4 November, before Brent touched $110. The SARB governor has warned inflation could breach 5% late in 2026.
- Affected: South Africa · fleets, retailers, employers in wage talks, borrowers on variable rates.
- Watch: Stats SA's September CPI on 21 October; the final November fuel adjustment; the rand (R16.48 on 16 October).
- Prepare: agree fuel clauses before 4 November; budget 2027 wage talks for inflation above 5%.
S-11-3 · Egypt's fuel freeze ends with an increase
Probability · MediumClaim: Egypt raises the retail price of 92-octane petrol or diesel at least once between 1 January and 31 March 2027, per the Ministry of Petroleum. Deadline: 31 March 2027. Probability: Medium.
- Why it matters early: on 15 October the pricing committee kept fuel prices unchanged to the end of December. Brent settled at $109.86 the next day. Egypt last raised fuel prices in March 2026. A freeze with an end date defers a decision; it does not cancel it.
- Affected: Egypt · logistics, manufacturing, agriculture and any business with diesel in its cost base.
- Watch: Brent; the pound; statements from the Ministry of Petroleum and the cabinet in December.
- Prepare: lock transport contracts through March 2027 (see decision 3); hold cash for a January increase.
11 · The prediction and scorecard
The prediction and scorecard
This week's updates
| Entry | Status | Evidence this week |
|---|---|---|
| P-07 · Nigeria September food inflation below 19% (№07) | ✕ Miss, resolved 15 Oct 2026 | September food inflation 19.59%, up from 19.57% (NBS, 15 Oct). |
| P-06 · Nigeria food inflation below 18% by December (№06) | ◐ Tracking | 19.59% in September (NBS); needs a fall of about 1.6 points in three prints. |
| P-01 · Kenya and Ghana hold through Q4; cedi–naira gap widens (№01) | ◐ Tracking | No rate meetings. Cedi GH¢11.68 interbank on 15 Oct (Bank of Ghana); naira near ₦1,332 (CBN). |
| P-08 · CBN holds at 23% in November (№08) | … Pending | MPC scheduled 23 and 24 Nov; the CBN called September's move an operational realignment, not a change of stance. |
| P-09 · Naira below ₦1,400 through 2026 (№09) | ◐ Tracking | Weakest close this week ₦1,335.50 on 13 Oct, ₦64.50 inside the threshold (CBN); reserves $55.07bn on 9 Oct (CBN). |
| P-10 · Nigeria PMI at least 5.0 points above Egypt's in November (№10) | … Pending | October PMIs due in early November. |
| S-08-3 · Policy divergence becomes currency divergence (№08) | ◐ Tracking | Rand R16.48 on 16 Oct, firmer than R16.63 on 7 Oct; naira steady. No widening this week. |
| S-10-1 · Ghana inflation at or above 6.0% for December (№10) | … Pending | October CPI due in November. The IMF projects Ghana's 2026 inflation at 4.8%. |
| S-10-2 · Morocco inflation above 1.0% for November (№10) | … Pending | HCP's September CPI not yet published at 16 Oct. |
| S-10-3 · Kenya private credit growth at or above 11.0% for December (№10) | … Pending | No new CBK credit data since 7 Oct. |
Resolved and unchanged: R-01 Miss, P-02 Miss, P-04 Miss, P-05 Hit, R-08 Miss.
The miss, and its lesson (P-07). We called September food inflation below 19%, on the harvest. The harvest arrived: food prices fell 1.55% in the month. But they had also fallen about 1.6% in September 2025, so the annual rate barely moved (GIA calculation from NBS figures). A monthly fall only lowers the annual rate if it beats the same month a year earlier. We now check the base month before every inflation call.
Running tally. Predictions to date: 1 hit, 5 misses, 6 open. Signals to date: 0 hits, 0 misses, 7 open.
R-01 and R-08 count as predictions because we scored them as calls in print; P-03 stays outside the tally. No band has 10 resolved v2 entries, so we make no claim about calibration.
This edition's call · P-11
- Claim: KNBS's year-on-year CPI inflation is at or above 7.0% for November 2026, per KNBS. Deadline: 7 December 2026.
- Evidence: inflation rose from 6.6% in August to 6.8% in September, with transport at 15.6% and food at 9.5%. Pump caps rose on 15 October, and Brent touched $110 the next day, ahead of the 14 November review.
- Assumptions: EPRA does not cut caps on 14 November; the shilling stays near KES 130 to the dollar; food prices do not fall sharply in October and November.
- Invalidated if: EPRA cuts petrol and diesel caps on 14 November; Brent falls below $90; KNBS's October print comes in below 6.5%.
- Confidence: Medium (40% to 69% likely).
- → If you employ in Kenya, plan wage support and prices for inflation near the 7.5% ceiling of the target range through December.
12 · Boardroom questions
Boardroom questions
- Which inflation rate did we use in our last price or pay decision, and is it the one our customers and staff actually face?
- What are our three largest energy costs, and on what date does each next change price?
- Which customer contracts would we lose money on if diesel rose 10% next month?
- If we raised prices on only five products, which five, and why those?
- Are we planning on a cheaper loan that our bank has not yet offered in writing?
Want these worked through for your business? Book a strategy session: https://www.growthintelafrica.com/advisory.
13 · Close
Close
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Related intelligence
Everyone reports on the economy. We tell you what to do next.
In Nigeria, we publish as Naijabusinessguy. Across Africa, as GrowthIntelAfrica. Same desk, same standard.
Data as of 16 October 2026. Sources:
Kenya
- Consumer Price Index, September 2026: headline 6.8% (August 6.6%); food and non-alcoholic beverages 9.5%; transport 15.6%; housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels 3.2%. KNBS, 30 September 2026; reported by The Star, Capital FM and Nairametrics.
- CPI weights: food and non-alcoholic beverages 32.9094; transport 9.6468; housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels 14.6124 (base February 2019 = 100). KNBS monthly CPI releases (November 2023 and April 2023).
- Pump-price caps from 15 October to 14 November 2026, Nairobi: super petrol KES 226.96 (+12.93); diesel KES 227.76 (+9.90); kerosene KES 219.87 (+28.49). EPRA, 14 October 2026; reported by Tech-ish.
- Kenya imports refined fuel, priced by EPRA from landed cost at Mombasa; next review due by 14 November; shilling KES 129.72 to KES 129.91 per dollar over the review period. Reported by Tech-ish, 14 October 2026.
- 2.5% to 7.5% inflation target range. Central Bank of Kenya; reported by The Kenya Times, 7 October 2026.
Nigeria
- Consumer Price Index, September 2026: headline 14.63% (August 15.39%); food 19.59% (August 19.57%); food month on month −1.55%; core 12.95%; core month on month 1.11% (August −0.06%); energy sub-index month on month 5.38%; services 14.51%. National Bureau of Statistics, 15 October 2026; reported by Voice of Nigeria and Technext.
- Lagos food inflation 34.40%, September 2026. National Bureau of Statistics; reported by TVC News.
- Naira official close ₦1,335.50 per dollar on 13 October 2026, weakest since 31 August. Central Bank of Nigeria data; reported by Nairametrics. Near ₦1,332 on 15 October: Central Bank of Nigeria data; reported by Arbiterz.
- Gross external reserves $55.07 billion, 9 October 2026 (corrected by the CBN from an earlier published $58 billion). Central Bank of Nigeria; reported by Nairametrics.
- MPR cut to 23%, 22 September 2026, described as "an important operational realignment" that "does not constitute a change in the current monetary policy stance". Central Bank of Nigeria; reported by TheNigeriaLawyer.
- MPC scheduled for 23 and 24 November 2026. Central Bank of Nigeria calendar; reported by BusinessDay.
- IMF 2026 growth forecast for Nigeria raised to 4.2%. IMF World Economic Outlook, 13 October 2026; reported by Semafor.
Ghana
- Consumer Price Index, September 2026: 5.2%; housing, water and energy 10.3%. Ghana Statistical Service, 7 October 2026; reported by MyJoyOnline.
- LPG price floor raised to GH¢13.87 per kg from GH¢11.10, from 16 October 2026. National Petroleum Authority; reported by MyJoyOnline. LPG pump price projected up 18.5% to GH¢20.60 per kg: Chamber of Oil Marketing Companies; reported by MyJoyOnline.
- Cedi interbank selling rate GH¢11.68, 15 October 2026. Bank of Ghana interbank market; reported by Modern Ghana.
- 2027 budget to be presented in the first week of November 2026. Finance Minister Cassiel Ato Forson; reported by MyJoyOnline, 15 September 2026.
- IMF projects Ghana's 2026 inflation at 4.8%. IMF World Economic Outlook, 13 October 2026; reported by Ghana News Agency.
South Africa
- Consumer Price Index, August 2026: headline 4.4%; food and non-alcoholic beverages 1.1%; housing and utilities 5.2%; transport 8.8%; weights 18.23, 24.10 and 13.89. Statistics South Africa, P0141, released 23 September 2026.
- September CPI scheduled for 21 October 2026. Statistics South Africa publication schedule.
- Petrol 95 rose by up to R3.33 a litre on 7 October 2026. Department of Mineral and Petroleum Resources; reported by TopAuto.
- Central Energy Fund data of 14 October 2026 indicate petrol up about R2.27 a litre on 4 November 2026 (a projection). Reported by TimesLIVE, 15 October 2026.
- SARB governor's warning that headline inflation could breach 5% late in 2026. South African Reserve Bank, 23 September 2026; reported by Briefly.
- Rand R16.48 per dollar, 16 October 2026; R16.63, 7 October 2026. Reported by Pound Sterling Live.
Egypt
- Urban CPI 13.9% in September 2026 (August 14.5%); up 1.3% on the month. CAPMAS, 10 October 2026; reported by Daily News Egypt and Zawya.
- Fuel prices kept unchanged to the end of December 2026 after the third-quarter review; last raised in March 2026. Automatic Fuel Pricing Committee, 15 October 2026; reported by Ahram Online.
- Central Bank of Egypt MPC scheduled for 29 October 2026. Reported by The Rio Times.
Morocco
- Consumer Price Index, August 2026: headline −0.3%; food and non-alcoholic beverages −4.2%; housing, water, electricity and other fuels 1.4%; transport 7.3%. Haut-Commissariat au Plan, note of 22 September 2026.
- CPI weights from the 2014 household consumption survey: food and non-alcoholic beverages 37.289; housing 14.549; transport 9.983. Haut-Commissariat au Plan, Les Brefs du Plan n°3, 12 September 2018.
- Gasoil up MAD 0.80 a litre on 1 October 2026 (reported by Morocco World News) and down 20 centimes from 16 October 2026 (reported by Le Matin).
- Butane and electricity price freeze and road-transport subsidies. Bank Al-Maghrib, 22 September 2026; reported by TelQuel.
- Cereal harvest estimated at 93 million quintals. Department of Agriculture estimate cited by Bank Al-Maghrib, 22 September 2026; reported by Le Matin.
Global
- Brent December contract settled at $109.86, up 3.7%, on 16 October 2026; first touch of $110 since May; attacks on Saudi Arabia and on Russian and Ukrainian energy infrastructure. Reported by Rigzone.
- IMF October 2026 World Economic Outlook, 13 October 2026: sub-Saharan Africa growth 4.5% in 2026. Reported by Semafor and BusinessDay.
GIA calculations from the figures above: essentials rates, gaps and contributions; rescaled weights; percentage changes in Kenyan pump prices and Ghana's LPG floor; the naira's headroom to ₦1,400; Nigeria's implied September 2025 monthly food change (an estimate).
Nothing here is investment, legal or tax advice.