01 · Executive summary
Executive summary
The cost of oil has started to show up in the cost of money. On 29 October Egypt's central bank raised its deposit rate by a point to 20%, its first hike since March 2024, three days after the pound passed 56 to the dollar as foreign investors sold Treasury bills. Kenya's inflation rose to 7.3% in October, a three-year high, with transport up 17.1%. South Africa's Reserve Bank, which hiked in September, decides again on 19 November. The US Federal Reserve held on 28 October, but two members voted for a hike.
Nigeria is the exception. Oil earns it dollars, reserves sit near $55 billion, and the naira recovered to ₦1,346.91 by 29 October.
The shift in thinking: for importers, oil is now a financing cost as well as an operating cost. Re-cost both.
02 · Market mood
Market mood: the price of money is rising
The single force this week was oil's second-round effect. Brent's December contract settled at $114.88 on 29 October, after rising more than 10% in October to its highest level since April. Where oil is imported and foreign money is mobile, the pressure moved from the pump to the currency, and from the currency to interest rates. Egypt hiked. South Africa may hike again on 19 November. Kenya's inflation is 0.2 points below the top of its central bank's target range.
Dates to plan around (scheduled): 1 November, Ghana's fuel pricing window · early November, October PMIs · 4 November, South Africa's fuel adjustment and levy relief · 12 November, Ghana's 2027 budget · by 14 November, Kenya's pump-price review · 19 November, South African Reserve Bank decision · 23 and 24 November, CBN decision · 9 December, US Federal Reserve decision (outside our coverage).
Operator takeaway: list every loan, overdraft and supplier credit line you have, with its rate, what the rate is linked to, and when it next resets. That list is your exposure to the next three weeks.
03 · The Comparative Read
The Comparative Read: Egypt pays to defend, Nigeria has room
The anchor: similar inflation, opposite moves. Egypt's urban inflation was 13.9% in September and Nigeria's 14.63%. In September, the CBN cut its rate by 3.50 points to 23%. On 29 October, Egypt's central bank raised its rate by a point to 20%.
Why. Oil, and who holds the currency. Egypt imports fuel; its petroleum trade deficit widened 31.5% in the year to June, and foreign investors hold its Treasury bills. As oil rose and the Fed leaned towards more hikes, they sold $700.5 million net in two days. The pound passed 56 to the dollar on 26 October, from 53.18 on 14 October, and the CBE raised rates to "keep expectations anchored". Nigeria exports oil, and its reserves stood near $55.26 billion in late October. When the naira slipped to ₦1,365 on 22 October, the CBN sold ₦2.63 trillion of OMO bills at higher yields; a week later the naira was back at ₦1,346.91. Even after its cut, Nigeria's real policy rate is 8.4 points, against Egypt's 6.1.
Six markets, one spectrum. Policy rate against the latest inflation reading. The gap is the real policy rate, the cushion each central bank has before it must act.
Sources: CBE, CBN, Bank of Ghana, SARB, Bank Al-Maghrib and CBK for rates; CAPMAS (urban), NBS, GSS, Stats SA, HCP and KNBS for inflation, as listed in Sources. Real rate: GIA calculation.
| Market | Policy rate (last move) | Inflation (period) | Real rate | Currency (latest) | Posture |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ghana | 14.00%, held 24 Sep | 5.2% (Sep) | +8.80 | GH¢11.73 average, 12 to 27 Oct | Tight and steady |
| Nigeria | 23.00%, cut 3.50 on 22 Sep | 14.63% (Sep) | +8.37 | ₦1,346.91 (29 Oct) | Exporter with room |
| Egypt | 20.00%, raised 1.00 on 29 Oct | 13.9% urban (Sep) | +6.10 | EGP 56.11 bank average (29 Oct) | Defending the pound |
| South Africa | 7.25%, raised 0.25 on 23 Sep | 4.5% (Sep) | +2.75 | R16.62 (30 Oct) | Leaning to tighten |
| Morocco | 2.25%, held 22 Sep | 0.5% (Sep) | +1.75 | Not tracked here | Shielded, on hold |
| Kenya | 8.75%, held 7 Oct | 7.3% (Oct) | +1.45 | KES 129.81 (15 Oct) | Thinnest cushion |
Real rate: policy rate minus latest annual inflation (GIA calculation). Posture is GIA's judgement.
Winners: Egyptian exporters with costs in pounds; Nigerian businesses holding naira cash, now that the one-year Treasury bill clears at 15.80%. Losers: Egyptian importers and anyone on a pound overdraft; Kenyan consumer businesses whose customers face 17.1% transport inflation; South African firms on prime-linked debt.
What should leaders do? Price your inputs at today's exchange rate and your borrowing at the next rate decision, not the last one.
- Egypt: re-cost imported stock at EGP 56 or weaker (see decision 1); exporters, quote first-quarter orders in dollars.
- Kenya: protect volume with smaller packs before 14 November (see decision 2).
- South Africa: budget prime at 11.00% before 19 November (see decision 3).
- Nigeria: use the naira's return to ₦1,347 to buy first-quarter import dollars; don't plan on a second cut on 24 November.
- Ghana: hold 2027 price lists until the 12 November budget.
- Morocco: no rate pressure yet; keep promotions dated while food prices turn.
04 · Numbers that matter
Numbers that matter
20.00%
Egypt's overnight deposit rate from 29 October
Up a point, the first hike since March 2024, against expectations of a hold; the lending rate is now 21.00%.
Source: CBE, reported by Amwal Al Ghad
→ Ask your bank in writing for the new rate on every pound facility, and when it applies.
EGP 56.35
the CBE's dollar selling rate, 26 October
The first time past 56. A dollar cost 6% more in pounds than on 14 October, when the rate was 53.18.
Source: reported by The Middle East Observer
→ Re-cost every imported line at 56 or weaker before you quote again.
7.3%
Kenya's inflation, October 2026
Up from 6.8%, a three-year high. Transport rose 17.1% and food 10.2%; core inflation was only 4.3%, so this is fuel and food, not demand.
Source: KNBS
→ Expect customers to trade down; give them a smaller pack before they leave.
₦1,346.91
naira official close, 29 October
Back from ₦1,365 on 22 October. Turnover fell to $54 million on 29 October, from $244 million the day before.
Source: CBN data, reported by Legit
→ Calm with thin turnover is a window, not a guarantee: buy the dollars you need for January now.
2 of 12
Fed members who voted for a hike on 28 October
The Fed held at 3.75% to 4.00%; futures price about an 85% chance of a hike on 9 December. Outside our coverage, but US rate expectations helped drive Egypt's outflows.
Source: Federal Reserve, reported by Admirals
→ Plan for dearer dollars into the new year, not cheaper ones.
05 · The Real Basket
The Real Basket
Essentials Gap
Official data, reweighted to essentials.
Source: GIA calculation from KNBS, Stats SA and HCP data, using each office's own CPI weights. Full working in the tables below.
| Market | CPI month | Essentials rate | Headline | Gap (points) | Driving category |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenya | October 2026 | 9.7% | 7.3% | +2.4 | Food (transport level with it) |
| South Africa | September 2026 | 5.3% | 4.5% | +0.8 | Transport |
| Morocco | September 2026 | 0.2% | 0.5% | −0.3 | Food |
| Nigeria | September 2026 | Not computed: division rates not accessible | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| Egypt (urban) | September 2026 | Not computed: category rates differ between reports | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| Ghana | n/a | Weights pending | n/a | n/a | n/a |
What moved. Kenya's gap widened from +2.1 points in September to +2.4 in October. Food rose to 10.2% and transport to 17.1%, while housing, at 3.7%, stayed below the headline. Food and transport now contribute almost equally to the gap. South Africa and Morocco stay at September until their October releases.
The working. Weights are each statistics office's own, rescaled so the three categories add to 100%. Essentials rate = Σ (weight × category inflation). Gap = essentials rate − headline. Driver = the category with the largest weight × (category inflation − headline) in the direction of the gap.
| Market | Food: weight · inflation | Transport: weight · inflation | Housing, water, electricity, gas: weight · inflation | Source and base |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenya (Oct) | 57.6% · 10.2% | 16.9% · 17.1% | 25.6% · 3.7% | KNBS CPI, February 2019 = 100 |
| South Africa (Sep) | 32.4% · 1.2% | 24.7% · 10.8% | 42.9% · 5.2% | Stats SA CPI, 2023 weights, December 2024 = 100 |
| Morocco (Sep) | 60.3% · −2.7% | 16.1% · 9.4% | 23.5% · 1.5% | HCP CPI, base 2017, 2014 expenditure weights |
Contributions to the gap: Kenya food +1.67, transport +1.65, housing −0.92. South Africa transport +1.56, housing +0.30, food −1.07. Morocco food −1.93, transport +1.44, housing +0.24.
Category mapping: COICOP divisions 01, 07 and 04 in each market; Stats SA publishes division 04 as "housing and utilities" and HCP as "logements, eau, électricité, gaz et autres combustibles". Egypt uses the urban series.
Street prices
Street prices: no reports to publish this week.
Operator takeaway: a Kenyan household's essentials rose 9.7% in a year while core prices rose 4.3%. Spending on everything else will shrink first, so protect volume on essentials and expect slower sales of the rest.
06 · Industries winning and under pressure
Industries winning and under pressure
Winning
- Egypt · exporters with costs in pounds (garments, processed food, outsourcing). Each dollar earned buys 6% more pounds than on 14 October, and domestic fuel prices are frozen to end-December. Response: quote first-quarter export orders in dollars now.
- Nigeria · businesses with surplus naira cash. The one-year Treasury bill cleared at 15.80% on 28 October, and the CBN's OMO bills at 17.14% to 17.63% on 22 October. Response: place cash you won't need for six months in bills through your bank.
Under pressure
- Egypt · importers and distributors on pound overdrafts. Pressure: High. Inputs cost more pounds and credit costs a point more. Response: re-cost stock and pay down the most expensive line first.
- Kenya · consumer retail, transport and food service. Pressure: High. Transport inflation 17.1%, food 10.2%; a Westlands to Kangemi matatu fare rose from KES 40 to KES 50. Response: smaller packs, fewer price points.
- South Africa · SMEs on prime-linked overdrafts and asset finance. Pressure: Medium. Prime is 10.75%, and economists are split on a hike on 19 November. Response: cut overdraft use now.
07 · Founder decisions
Founder decisions
1 · Egypt · importer and distributor of household appliances, 70 staff, Alexandria
(Illustrative.)
Challenge. Price lists were set when a dollar cost about 53 pounds. On 26 October it cost 56.35. On $150,000 of monthly imports, that adds about EGP 476,000 a month. The overdraft rate rose a point on 29 October.
Decision. By 6 November, re-cost every imported line at EGP 56 or weaker and reprice where the margin has gone. Keep prices in pounds, valid for seven days. Settle dollar invoices on arrival rather than carrying unmatched dollar payables. Use cash from slow-moving stock to pay down the most expensive overdraft first.
Outcome. Margins rebuilt on today's exchange rate, a smaller debt bill, and no open bet on where the pound goes next.
Work it through: Cash Exposure Check, "Where is my cash flow exposed?", in the Decision Centre.
2 · Kenya · consumer-goods distributor, 90 staff, Nakuru
(Illustrative.)
Challenge. Retailers report shoppers buying less per visit. Transport inflation was 17.1% in October and food 10.2%, against core inflation of 4.3%: fuel and food are crowding out everything else. Diesel is KES 227.76 a litre in Nairobi, and EPRA reviews again by 14 November.
Decision. Before 14 November, add smaller pack sizes on the ten fastest-moving lines so customers keep buying at a lower ticket. Re-cost every delivery route at the current diesel cap, and add a delivery charge that moves with each EPRA review. Cut price points rather than raising every price.
Outcome. Volume held as wallets tighten, and fuel costs passed through by a rule customers can see.
Work it through: Pricing Pressure Check, "Should I move my prices?", in the Decision Centre.
3 · South Africa · engineering services firm, 50 staff, R4 million overdraft, Ekurhuleni
(Illustrative.)
Challenge. The overdraft is linked to prime, now 10.75% after the September hike. The Reserve Bank decides on 19 November; Nedbank expects another 25 basis points, Investec and Old Mutual Wealth do not. Each 25 points on R4 million costs R10,000 a year.
Decision. Before 19 November, chase every debtor older than 60 days and use the cash to cut the overdraft. Budget 2027 at prime of 11.00%. Ask the bank in writing what a fixed rate on the term portion would cost, and compare it with prime plus 0.50.
Outcome. Lower borrowing whatever the Reserve Bank decides, and a 2027 budget that survives one more hike.
Work it through: Business Health Check, "Is my business healthy?", in the Decision Centre.
08 · Opportunity radar
Opportunity radar
Egypt · exporters: a weaker pound and frozen fuel, until January. A dollar of export sales buys 6% more pounds than on 14 October, and domestic fuel prices are frozen to the end of December. Exporters with pound costs gain margin on every dollar order. Capture it by quoting first-quarter orders in dollars, where buyers allow, and holding receipts in dollars until you need pounds. The upside: on $100,000 of monthly exports, the move since 14 October is worth about EGP 317,000 a month (illustrative).
→ This week: send dollar quotes for first-quarter orders to your three largest export buyers.
Nigeria · importers: a calm naira before the election. The naira closed at ₦1,346.91 on 29 October, back from ₦1,365 a week earlier, with the election on 16 January. Importers with naira cash can buy the dollars for January and February stock now, at the official window, instead of in the weeks before the vote.
→ This week: list your import payments due before 28 February and fund the first half.
09 · Risk radar
Risk radar: hot money can leave Lagos too
Likelihood: Medium (40% to 69%). Impact: High.
Egypt showed this week how fast foreign money leaves when US rates look set to rise: $700.5 million of Treasury bills sold in two days, and a dollar 6% dearer in pounds in twelve. Nigeria's stability also leans on foreign money: debt securities made up $4.97 billion of $6.51 billion of portfolio investment in the second quarter. A Fed hike on 9 December would land a month before the election. Reserves near $55 billion give the CBN room to supply dollars, not to ignore an outflow.
- Early warning: foreign demand at CBN OMO and Treasury bill auctions; daily NFEM turnover (it fell 78% on 29 October); the gap between the official and parallel rates (₦1,347 against ₦1,390); weekly reserves; the Fed on 9 December.
- Mitigation: fund January and February import dollars early; keep quotes at seven days; avoid funding long-term assets with short-term naira credit; hold a cash buffer of four to six weeks of import costs.
10 · Signals before headlines
Signals before headlines
S-13-1 · Egypt's pound has further to fall
Probability · MediumClaim: The Central Bank of Egypt's official US dollar selling rate is above EGP 57.00 on 31 December 2026, per the CBE. Deadline: 31 December 2026. Probability: Medium.
- Why it matters early: a surprise hike can steady a currency, but the pressures that broke 56 remain: oil above $110, foreign money leaving Treasury bills, and a Fed leaning to hike. The fuel freeze ends with December.
- Affected: Egypt · importers, distributors, anyone with dollar costs and pound revenue.
- Watch: the CBE's daily rate; foreign flows in Treasury bills; the next MPC; any fuel-price decision for January.
- Prepare: price in pounds for seven days at a time; don't carry unmatched dollar payables.
S-13-2 · Kenya's inflation breaks the ceiling
Probability · MediumClaim: KNBS's year-on-year CPI inflation is above 7.5% for at least one month from November 2026 to January 2027, per KNBS. Deadline: 5 February 2027. Probability: Medium.
- Why it matters early: 7.5% is the top of the CBK's target range. October was 7.3%, with non-core prices up 15.1%, and Kenya's real policy rate, 1.45 points, is the thinnest in our coverage. A breach would put a rate rise on the table.
- Affected: Kenya · borrowers on variable rates, consumer businesses, employers in pay talks.
- Watch: EPRA's 14 November review; KNBS's November CPI; the CBK's next MPC.
- Prepare: ask your bank how your loan reprices if the CBR rises; keep pay rises as reviewable allowances.
S-13-3 · Nigeria's buffer keeps growing
Probability · MediumClaim: The Central Bank of Nigeria's gross external reserves are above $56.0 billion on 31 December 2026, per the CBN. Deadline: 31 December 2026. Probability: Medium.
- Why it matters early: reserves rose from $45.57 billion on 2 January to about $55.26 billion in late October, with oil above $110. Above $56 billion at year-end means the CBN can meet election-season dollar demand.
- Affected: Nigeria · importers, manufacturers with imported inputs, foreign-currency borrowers.
- Watch: weekly reserves; Brent; the hot-money signs in the risk radar.
- Prepare: treat reserve growth as support, not a promise: keep the early-buying plan above.
11 · The prediction and scorecard
The prediction and scorecard
This week's updates. No entry resolved this week.
| Entry | Status | Evidence this week |
|---|---|---|
| P-01 · Kenya and Ghana hold through Q4; cedi–naira gap widens (№01) | ◐ Tracking | No rate meetings. Cedi firmed 0.70% in the latest pricing window; naira firmed to ₦1,346.91. Leans towards a Hit. |
| P-06 · Nigeria food inflation below 18% by December (№06) | ◐ Tracking | No new reading. Leaning towards a Miss. |
| P-08 · CBN holds at 23% in November (№08) | … Pending | MPC on 23 and 24 Nov. OMO yields rose on 22 Oct; Egypt hiked; two Fed members voted to hike. All argue against a cut. |
| P-09 · Naira below ₦1,400 through 2026 (№09) | ◐ Tracking | Close ₦1,346.91 on 29 Oct, ₦53.09 inside the threshold. |
| P-10 · Nigeria PMI at least 5.0 points above Egypt's in November (№10) | … Pending | October PMIs due in early November. |
| P-11 · Kenya inflation at or above 7.0% for November (№11) | ◐ Tracking | October 7.3%. Base month checked: November 2025 rose 0.16%, so November 2026 could fall about 0.2% and still hit. |
| P-12 · South Africa's January diesel above its 4 November price (№12) | … Pending | 4 November prices not yet published. Brent $114.88 (December contract, 29 Oct). |
| S-08-3 · Policy divergence becomes currency divergence (№08) | ◐ Tracking | Rand 1.2% weaker in October; naira firmer this week. Still no threshold. |
| S-10-1 · Ghana inflation at or above 6.0% for December (№10) | … Pending | October CPI due in early November. Diesel up 1.50% in the 1 Nov window. |
| S-10-2 · Morocco inflation above 1.0% for November (№10) | ◐ Tracking | No new reading. |
| S-10-3 · Kenya private credit growth at or above 11.0% for December (№10) | … Pending | No new data. |
| S-11-1 · Nigeria October core inflation above 0.5% on the month (№11) | ◐ Tracking | No new reading; due mid-November. |
| S-11-2 · South Africa inflation at or above 5.0% for October (№11) | ◐ Tracking | Nedbank expects October to peak at 5.7%. |
| S-11-3 · Egypt raises fuel prices in January to March 2027 (№11) | ◐ Tracking | The pound passed 56; imported fuel costs more pounds. Freeze still runs to end-December. |
| S-12-1 · Naira weaker than ₦1,350 on 15 January (№12) | … Pending | ₦1,346.91 on 29 Oct, just on the strong side. |
| S-12-2 · Kenya's December diesel cap above KES 227.76 (№12) | … Pending | Transport inflation 17.1%; EPRA reviews by 14 Nov. |
| S-12-3 · Cedi weaker than GH¢12.00 on 31 December (№12) | … Pending | Cedi firmed 0.70%; budget on 12 Nov. |
Resolved and unchanged: R-01 Miss, P-02 Miss, P-04 Miss, P-05 Hit, P-07 Miss, R-08 Miss.
Running tally. Predictions to date: 1 hit, 5 misses, 8 open. Signals to date: 0 hits, 0 misses, 13 open.
R-01 and R-08 count as predictions because we scored them as calls in print; P-03 stays outside the tally. No band has 10 resolved v2 entries, so we make no claim about calibration.
This edition's call · P-13
- Claim: The South African Reserve Bank's repo rate is above 7.25% on 31 January 2027, per the SARB. Deadline: 31 January 2027.
- Evidence: the SARB hiked unanimously in September and expects inflation above 5% late this year and early next. Nedbank expects October inflation to peak at 5.7%. The rand weakened 1.2% in October, the Fed is leaning to hike, and Egypt has just hiked.
- Assumptions: the November levy relief lowers pump prices only briefly and does not change the SARB's view of inflation expectations; oil stays above $95.
- Invalidated if: Stats SA's October CPI prints below 4.8%; Brent settles below $95 before 19 November; the rand strengthens beyond R16.00 before 19 November.
- Confidence: Medium (40% to 69% likely).
- → If you borrow at prime, budget 2027 at 11.00%, not 10.75%.
12 · Boardroom questions
Boardroom questions
- Which of our costs are paid in dollars, and at what exchange rate did we last price them?
- Which of our loans reprice with the central bank, and when is the next decision?
- If our cheapest product became 10% dearer for our customers, which smaller or cheaper version would keep them buying?
- Do we hold any dollar payables we have not matched with dollars?
- What would one more 25-point rate rise cost us over 2027?
Want these worked through for your business? Book a strategy session: https://www.growthintelafrica.com/advisory.
13 · Close
Close
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Related intelligence
- Egypt economy page
- Kenya economy page
- South Africa economy page
- Nigeria economy page
- Past CEO Briefs
Everyone reports on the economy. We tell you what to do next.
In Nigeria, we publish as Naijabusinessguy. Across Africa, as GrowthIntelAfrica. Same desk, same standard.
Data as of 30 October 2026. Sources:
Global
- Brent December contract settled at $114.88 on 29 October 2026 (expiring 30 October); January contract $110.80; Brent rose more than 10% in October and touched its highest level since April. Bloomberg; reported by Rigzone, 29 October 2026.
- US Federal Reserve held its target range at 3.75% to 4.00% on 28 October 2026; vote 10 to 2, Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack preferring a 25 basis point hike; futures priced about an 85% chance of a hike on 9 December. Federal Reserve; reported by Admirals (citing CME FedWatch) and Rigzone.
Egypt
- Overnight deposit rate raised to 20.00%, lending rate 21.00%, main operation rate 20.50%, on 29 October 2026; quotes from the statement. Central Bank of Egypt; reported by Amwal Al Ghad. First hike since March 2024; analysts had expected a hold: reported by TradingView (Trading Economics) and MarketScreener.
- Previous rates 19.00% and 20.00%, held at five consecutive meetings to 24 September 2026. Central Bank of Egypt; reported by Arab Finance.
- CBE dollar rate EGP 56.2126 buying and 56.3511 selling on 26 October 2026, the first time past 56; foreign investors' net sales of $700.5 million of Treasury bills over 25 and 26 October. CBE and Egyptian Exchange data; reported by The Middle East Observer, 27 October 2026.
- CBE official rate EGP 53.04 buying and 53.18 selling on 14 October 2026; petroleum trade deficit widened 31.5% in the fiscal year to June. Reported by The Rio Times, 14 October 2026.
- Five-bank average EGP 56.01 buying and 56.11 selling on 29 October 2026. Reported by Amwal Al Ghad.
- Urban CPI 13.9% in September 2026. CAPMAS, 10 October 2026; reported by Daily News Egypt.
- Fuel prices kept unchanged to the end of December 2026. Automatic Fuel Pricing Committee, 15 October 2026; reported by Ahram Online.
Nigeria
- Naira official close ₦1,346.91 per dollar on 29 October 2026 (28 October: ₦1,347.53); turnover $54.05 million on 29 October against $244.07 million on 28 October; gross reserves $55.26 billion; parallel market about ₦1,390. Central Bank of Nigeria data; reported by Legit.
- Naira official close ₦1,365 on 22 October 2026. Central Bank of Nigeria data; reported by Nairametrics.
- Gross reserves $55.16 billion on 22 October 2026 and $45.57 billion on 2 January 2026. Central Bank of Nigeria; reported by WithinNigeria.
- OMO auction of 22 October 2026: ₦2.628 trillion sold; stop rates 17.14% (180-day) and 17.63% (138-day), both above the 6 October auction. Central Bank of Nigeria; reported by Nairametrics.
- Treasury bill auction of 28 October 2026: 364-day stop rate 15.80%, from 15.90%. Debt Management Office and Central Bank of Nigeria; reported by Nairametrics.
- Portfolio investment $6.51 billion in Q2 2026, of which debt securities $4.97 billion. Central Bank of Nigeria; reported by Nairametrics, 19 October 2026.
- Consumer Price Index, September 2026: headline 14.63%. National Bureau of Statistics, 15 October 2026.
- Monetary policy rate cut by 350 basis points to 23%, 22 September 2026; MPC scheduled for 23 and 24 November 2026. Central Bank of Nigeria; reported by Nairametrics and BusinessDay.
- Presidential election on 16 January 2027. Independent National Electoral Commission; reported by Arise News.
Kenya
- Consumer Price Index, October 2026: headline 7.3% (September 6.8%); month on month 0.7%; index 157.60; food and non-alcoholic beverages 10.2%; transport 17.1%; housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels 3.7%; core 4.3%; non-core 15.1%; average diesel KES 228.77 a litre; Westlands to Kangemi matatu fare KES 40 to KES 50. KNBS, 30 October 2026; reported by The Star and Kenyans.co.ke. Highest in more than three years: reported by CNBC Africa.
- Consumer Price Index, November 2025: index 147.08, up 0.16% on the month. KNBS; reported by NCBA Research via Khusoko.
- CPI weights: 32.9094; 9.6468; 14.6124 (base February 2019 = 100). KNBS monthly CPI releases.
- Central Bank Rate held at 8.75% on 7 October 2026. Central Bank of Kenya. Target range 2.5% to 7.5%: Central Bank of Kenya; reported by The Kenya Times.
- Shilling KES 129.81 per dollar, 15 October 2026. Central Bank of Kenya, Weekly Bulletin, 16 October 2026.
- Pump-price caps from 15 October to 14 November 2026, Nairobi: diesel KES 227.76. EPRA, 14 October 2026; reported by Tech-ish. Next review due by 14 November.
South Africa
- Repo rate raised 25 basis points to 7.25% on 23 September 2026, unanimously, effective 25 September; inflation expected above 5% late in 2026 and early 2027, back to 3% towards the end of 2027. South African Reserve Bank; reported by SAnews and TechFinancials. Prime 10.75%.
- MPC on 19 November 2026; Nedbank expects a 25 basis point hike and an October inflation peak of 5.7%; Investec and Old Mutual Wealth expect no hike. Reported by Business News South Africa, 28 October 2026.
- Consumer Price Index, September 2026: headline 4.5%; food and non-alcoholic beverages 1.2%; transport 10.8%; housing and utilities 5.2%. Statistics South Africa, P0141, 21 October 2026.
- CPI weights: 18.23; 13.89; 24.10 (2023 weights, December 2024 = 100). Statistics South Africa, P0141.
- Rand R16.6237 per dollar at the close on 30 October 2026; R16.4226 on 30 September 2026. Reported by Pound Sterling Live.
- Fuel adjustment and levy relief from 4 November 2026. National Treasury; reported by allAfrica (SAnews).
Ghana
- Policy rate held at 14.0% on 24 September 2026, unanimously. Bank of Ghana, MPC decision statement.
- Consumer Price Index, September 2026: 5.2%. Ghana Statistical Service; reported by MyJoyOnline.
- 1 to 15 November 2026 pricing window: petrol −3.35% (GH¢17.02 a litre), diesel +1.50% (GH¢18.99), LPG +0.81% (projections); cedi averaged GH¢11.7326 from 12 to 27 October, up 0.70%. Chamber of Oil Marketing Companies; reported by Ahotor Online via Ghanamma, 30 October 2026.
- 2027 budget to be presented on 12 November 2026. Deputy Finance Minister Thomas Nyarko Ampem; reported by GBC, 29 October 2026.
Morocco
- Policy rate held at 2.25% on 22 September 2026. Bank Al-Maghrib; reported by TelQuel.
- Consumer Price Index, September 2026: +0.5% year on year; food and non-alcoholic beverages −2.7%; transport +9.4%; housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels +1.5%. Haut-Commissariat au Plan, 22 October 2026; division table reproduced by Médias24.
- CPI weights from the 2014 household consumption survey: 37.289; 9.983; 14.549. Haut-Commissariat au Plan, Les Brefs du Plan n°3, 12 September 2018.
GIA calculations from the figures above: real policy rates; essentials rates, gaps and contributions; rescaled weights; the pound's and rand's moves; the naira's headroom to ₦1,400 and ₦1,350; the November 2026 Kenyan price change consistent with P-11; turnover change; and all illustrative figures in the Founder decisions and Opportunity radar.
Nothing here is investment, legal or tax advice.