Last week's worry was a VAT cliff. Parliament fixed that (Signal 02), but landed costs did the damage instead. Every 100 litres of diesel now costs Ksh990 more than a month ago, and petrol Ksh1,293 more (our arithmetic from EPRA's prices). Mombasa caps are Ksh223.81 petrol and Ksh224.61 diesel.

Petrol and diesel rose 6.0% and 4.5%, less than their landed costs, so the November 14 review is the next test if Murban crude stays near $102 (CBK's bulletin had $102.39 on October 15). That is our reading, not an EPRA forecast. Kerosene rose 14.9%, more than its landed cost, because EPRA said it narrowed the gap to diesel to discourage adulteration. The Motorists Association has demanded the pricing worksheets and an audit of the government-to-government import deal, and warns of possible demonstrations.

This removes the October 14 cliff that last week's brief flagged, so you do not need a 16% price list now. The reason to stay careful is that the extension is temporary and costly: Ksh54bn in six months, and in August the Treasury CS described the choice as balancing inflation against tax revenue. The next real decision point is mid-January, or earlier if a Gazette notice extends it. Plan fuel costs to that date and not beyond.

This moves a cost from KRA to you, and there are seven days to act. No report gives vendor prices, penalties or service obligations. KRA's own advice is to arrange a vendor before October 26 to avoid disruption in cargo monitoring and clearance. Importers, exporters, clearing agents, transporters and bonded warehouses are all named. If your agent normally handles seals, ask which vendor they use and what it adds to your clearing bill.

Goods not entered by about October 4 (our count) are deemed abandoned to Customs. The notices describe no route to withdraw a listed consignment, so ask your agent whether lawful entry is still accepted before your lot is called. The Mombasa auction starts the same day as the e-seal switch-off (Signal 03), so agents there face two changes at once. Delays are plausible, which is our reading and not a reported fact.

Duty by area favours heavy, thick tiles and can hurt thin, light ones, so the effect depends on what you import (our reading). For builders, cheaper imported tiles could pull down quotes this quarter. For local tile makers, the price gap to imports narrows. No report gives an effective date and the Ksh400 rate comes from one outlet, so confirm both with KRA before you reprice.

There is no stress signal yet. Cover is 5.9 months against a 4-month statutory floor, and the shilling has moved about 0.15% since September 25 (our arithmetic). The direction is the watch item: crude near $102 raises the import bill while reserves drift down by USD 564 million in five weeks (3.7%). A steady shilling is a window for importers to fix Q4 supplier prices. The 364-day bill pays 9.04%, only about 0.3 points above the 91-day, so there is little reward for locking up cash. September remittances were up 4.5% on a year earlier, but the twelve-month total is down 1.0%. We found no verified cause for the NSE fall.

On an old liability, penalties and interest can be large next to the principal, and they disappear if the principal is cleared. Penalties and interest for periods from January 1, 2026 are not covered and keep accruing. KRA says to keep paying approved instalments until the principal is cleared; ask KRA whether a plan must finish by December 31 to qualify. There are about ten weeks left.