Pump prices have not moved since the September 15 review (Nairobi: petrol Ksh214.03, diesel Ksh217.86). VAT is roughly Ksh16 of each litre of petrol or diesel at the 8% rate (People Daily's August breakdown). If the rate went back to 16% and nothing else moved, that share would roughly double, adding about Ksh16 a litre. That is our arithmetic, not an EPRA estimate. Transport, food delivery and any firm with a vehicle feel it first.

Extension is not confirmed. In August, CS Mbadi said Treasury was "balancing inflation vis-a-vis tax revenue", and KRA told Senators it gave up Ksh9.1bn in April and May. The April cut was passed and signed on the same day, April 16, so a fast fix is possible. The same bill also changes excise duty on tiles from a weight basis to a size basis; the report gives no rates. Note: the bill notice rests on one report (Kenyans.co.ke) and we have not seen the bill text.

The gap between the 14.4% average loan rate and the 8.75% policy rate is about 5.7 points (our arithmetic), and nothing this week narrows it. Last edition's lean-to-hold call was right, and it means any loan or asset-finance deal should be judged at today's price, not at a hoped-for cut. Credit growth ticking up suggests borrowers are still borrowing at these rates. Meanwhile 91-day bills pay close to the policy rate, so cash you do not need for operations earns something without bank risk.

This edition confirms what last week only flagged: the auctions are not cancelled and we found no grace period. On paper the 30 days have already run out, so this is no longer a warning window. The notices do not describe a way to pull goods off the list now, so ask your clearing agent today whether lawful entry before the sale date is still accepted. For buyers, distressed stock is a real source of cheap inventory, but the notices do not say what duty or storage charges sit on top, so confirm those before you bid.

Two pulls in opposite directions. Near term, supply stays tight: the Dairy Board has said output recovers about two weeks after the rains start, and the official outlook puts Nairobi's onset in the second or third week of October (Signal 05), so meaningful recovery is more likely in November than October (our reading). Further out, Kagwe's own glut warning means today's peak prices may not hold. A September 11 report put shelf prices up by as much as 30% on some brands.

Heavy rain is a cost event for anyone who moves goods: slower deliveries, damaged roads, spoiled stock, closed outlets. It is a revenue event for others: roofing, drainage, water storage, waterproofing, and farm inputs ahead of planting. The same rain is what dairy farmers are waiting for (Signal 04). The department's statement gives no sector-specific impacts, so the planning below is ours, not its forecast of damage.

At 10,000 replies a month the Meta bill is about USD 36, roughly Ksh4,700, before your software provider's own fees; at 100,000 replies it is about Ksh51,000. A small shop on the Business app will never notice. The damage lands on firms running chatbots that answer every message or send automatic order updates. If you pass the free limit with no payment method on file, Meta stops delivering further service replies, so customers simply hear nothing.

Nothing changes for your till today. Interoperability orders and open-data rules are how a second payment option gets built, such as a cheaper wallet or a lender reading your sales history. Merchant acquirers and payment gateways, which many online sellers rely on, face licensing and capital rules, so check who your gateway is licensed by. The reports we read do not cover merchant fees or SME-specific provisions, so we make no claim on cost.

You need cash to qualify: for example, a cluster buying Ksh10m of shared equipment must raise Ksh5m. Reported eligibility is registered cooperatives, associations or cluster entities, two or more years in operation, already selling products, in value chains such as dairy, coffee, tea, leather, edible oils, textiles, rice and construction materials. Land, vehicles, construction and running costs are excluded. Reports differ on timing (Kenyans.co.ke mentions cohorts in October, November and January), and the portal did not confirm a deadline or grant cap. Scammers follow grant news; MSEA says no one should pay to be selected.