Last week's pump prices (Nairobi petrol Ksh226.96, diesel Ksh227.76, to November 14) rose less than landed costs did: 6.0% against 11.81% for petrol, and 4.5% against 11.32% for diesel. EPRA said September's import costs drove that review, so October's costs are likely to drive the next one (our reading). CBK's October 16 bulletin had Murban crude at $102.39 on October 15; Brent and Murban are different benchmarks, so we use Brent here only to show direction.

The 8% fuel VAT runs to about mid-January, so there is no further tax cushion if the November 14 review is large. Transport was already up 15.6% in September's annual inflation figures (Signal 07). A business burning 1,000 litres of diesel a month pays Ksh10,000 more for every Ksh10 added at the pump (our arithmetic). We found no EPRA forecast, and how much of a crude move EPRA passes on is its call.

The rule is not new; the hard block is. The notice says it follows previous notices, and a digital platform linked to eCitizen, M-Pesa and banks went live on July 1 (The Star). What changes on November 1 is that a missing or untransmitted certificate stops clearance. November 1 is a Sunday, so Friday, October 30 is the last working day to fix a file (our count). The notice gives no grace period, penalty or premium rate, and we found no published rate.

This is the latest in a stack of import paperwork: the Advance Cargo Declaration for containerised cargo (KRA Notice 2380, July 14) and an exporter-document requirement reported from September, whose dates conflict between sources. Small importers with one agent and little leverage over overseas suppliers are most exposed (our reading). Cover from an insurer that is not IRA-licensed would not meet the notice's wording, so ask your supplier and agent how your goods are insured today (our reading).

With two days left, nothing we found shows KRA softening the date. KRA used to supply e-seals free of charge, so this moves a cost to you. The Shipping Council of Eastern Africa and the Kenya Shipping Agents Association welcomed the change, expecting shorter seal queues (The Standard, undated in the text we read). Whether 13 to 15 vendors compete on price is our reading, not a reported fact.

Mombasa agents face the auction, the e-seal switch and, days later, the insurance gate (Signal 02) in one stretch. Delays are plausible, which is our reading. Goods listed for auction that were never entered are deemed abandoned to Customs; KRA's notices describe no route to withdraw a listed consignment.

Your clearing agent or warehouse is part of your supply chain. If its licence is refused or lapses, cargo cannot be cleared or stored through that firm from January 1 (our reading of what expiry means). For bonded warehouses, KRA says it renews only where the applicant has no outstanding issues with any KRA department, so a tax arrears problem can block a licence. The notices state no fee or late penalty.

October 31 is a Saturday, so the practical date is Friday, October 30 (our count). It lands in the same week as the e-seal switch and the insurance gate (Signals 02 and 03). Transit sheds are covered by a separate notice, 2396, which we did not open.

Cheap or free loans now carry a tax cost. If you lend staff money below 9%, the gap is a taxable fringe benefit under section 12B of the Income Tax Act. If the company lends interest-free to a shareholder or connected person, 9% is treated as interest, with 15% withholding tax. On a Ksh1,000,000 interest-free loan, deemed interest is Ksh22,500 for the quarter and the withholding tax Ksh3,375. A staff loan at 4% creates a Ksh12,500 quarterly benefit (our arithmetic, simple quarterly accrual; KRA gives no worked example).

The notice does not say when the five working days start. Kenyans.co.ke applied the five days to employers more broadly; we follow KRA's wording, which ties them to the withholding on deemed interest.

For a government supplier, an invoice that does not match KRA's record is a payment delay, and delay is a cash-flow cost. The draft signals tougher vetting of firms registered under the reserved categories for young people, women and persons with disabilities. Honest owners gain if fronts are removed; anyone with loose ownership paperwork is exposed (our reading). Business Today also reports a plan to move all public purchasing to an online portal.

Both items rest on one outlet, Business Today, and we did not find the October 20 invoice notice in KRA's public-notices register, whose latest entries are Notices 2401 to 2403.

September's figure was taken before the October 15 pump-price rise, so the October reading is the first to include it (our reading). KNBS published the September number on September 30, so we expect the October number around October 30, but we have not verified the date. Core inflation at 4% against 6.8% headline suggests the pressure is mostly food and transport rather than broad demand (our reading).

A steady shilling gives importers a window to fix Q4 prices. The 91-day bill at 8.750% is about 1.95 points above September inflation, and the 364-day bill pays 9.038%, only about 0.3 points more (our arithmetic). Reserves were USD 15,253 million on September 10, so cover has drifted down; with oil rising, the direction is the watch item.

Rain restores pasture, which should lift milk supply and cut feed costs. The Kenya Times says relief for buyers may be slow: North Rift feed prices are up about a third and some milk is going to brokers. The same rain brings flood and mud risk. KMD's preliminary outlook gave an 81% chance of a very strong El Niño, with the Indian Ocean Dipole deciding how wet it gets (Eastleigh Voice, July 25).

We did not find KMD's own forecast for October 24 to 30, so this is a seasonal outlook as reported by the press, not a weekly warning.