Beneath the Numbers: Methodology

01 · Inputs

Three numbers required, the rest sharpen the reading

An empty answer is treated as unknown, never as zero, so a missing figure hides a reading instead of distorting it.

Input	Required	What it means	How to work it out	Used in
Monthly sales (S)	Yes	Sales in a normal month, ₦	Last three months of sales ÷ 3	Every reading
Gross margin (g)	Yes	Share of each ₦100 of sales left after paying for what was sold	(sales − cost of those sales) ÷ sales	Every reading
Days to pay (DSO)	Yes	Average days between a sale and the cash arriving; 0 if paid on the spot	What customers owe ÷ monthly sales × 30	Cash stuck, score
Sector	No	Business type; food businesses use food inflation	Pick from list	Prices, Room Pulse
Months since last price rise (n)	No	Months prices have stood still	From memory	Prices, score
Dollar-linked share of costs (f)	No	Share of cost of goods priced in or tied to dollars	Estimate	Naira, score
Stock days (DIO)	No	Days stock sits before it sells	Stock at cost ÷ monthly cost of goods × 30	Cash stuck, score
Supplier days (DPO)	No	Days taken to pay suppliers	What you owe suppliers ÷ monthly cost of goods × 30	Cash stuck, score
Monthly running costs (R)	No	Rent, salaries, power, fuel, data	From records	Stress test, score
Cash you can reach (K)	No	Cash available today	Bank and till balances	Stress test, score
Loan balance (B)	No	Outstanding borrowing; 0 if none	Bank statement	Rate cut, score
Interest rate (i)	If B>0	Annual rate on the loan, %	Loan letter	Score, stress test

Four sliders set the scenarios and never enter the score's inputs: a naira move of 0% to 30% (default 10%), a rate cut of 0 to 6 points (default 2), a sales fall of 0% to 60% (default 20%) and a dip lasting 1 to 6 months (default 2).

Example business (used in the briefing and below): S = ₦12m, g = 30%, DSO = 30 days, retail, n = 6 months, f = 40%, DIO = 45 days, DPO = 15 days, R = ₦2m, K = ₦3m, B = ₦10m at i = 30%. Cost of goods C = S × (1 − g) = ₦8.4m a month; gross profit GP = S × g = ₦3.6m a month.

02 · Economic assumptions

Five figures from the economy, fixed in the page

Updated by hand when the CBN, NBS or the market moves. All are as of late September 2026; they are checked before each briefing. Inflation is the only assumption that changes a reading's number. The rate, naira and election figures set context and labels; the naira and rate-cut amounts come from the person's own sliders.

Assumption	Value	Used for	Source
CBN policy rate	23%, reset from 26.5% on 22 September; the CBN said banks were already dealing near 22% and the move does not change its stance	Rate-cut reading, context	Nairametrics, 22 Sep 2026
Headline inflation	15.39% a year (August 2026)	Cost drift for all sectors except food	Nairametrics, 15 Sep 2026
Food inflation	19.57% a year (August 2026)	Cost drift for food, drinks and hospitality	Nairametrics, 15 Sep 2026
Naira per dollar	₦1,331 official, about ₦1,395 parallel (21 September)	Naira reading text	Vanguard, 21 Sep 2026
Presidential election	Saturday 16 January 2027; the day count updates daily	Stress-test framing	allAfrica: INEC 2027 dates

03 · The five readings

Each reading answers one question

All monthly figures use a 30-day month, and cost of goods is C = S × (1 − g).

1. Where your cash is stuck

How much of the business's money is sitting with customers and on shelves instead of in the account.

Cash stuck = (S ÷ 30 × DSO) + (C ÷ 30 × DIO) − (C ÷ 30 × DPO)

The cash cycle in days is DSO + DIO − DPO. With only the three numbers, the reading shows the first term, the money with customers.

Example: ₦12.0m with customers + ₦12.6m in stock − ₦4.2m owed to suppliers = ₦20.4m, a 60-day cash cycle. Collecting 10 days faster frees ₦4.0m once; holding 10 fewer days of stock frees ₦2.8m once.

2. What your prices are worth

What a small price move is worth, and what standing still costs while costs rise.

m = (1 + π)^(1/12) − 1
Price gap = C × [(1 + m)^n − 1]

π is annual inflation (15.39%, or 19.57% for food) and m the monthly cost drift. Every 1% on prices adds 0.01 × S a month to gross profit. Each month prices stand still costs C × m. Closing the gap needs prices higher by gap ÷ S.

Example: m = 1.20% a month. 1% on prices is worth ₦120k a month, 3.3% more gross profit at a 30% margin. Each month of standing still costs about ₦101k. After 6 months the gap is ₦623k a month, so prices need to rise about 5.2%.

3. If the naira moves

The extra monthly cost of a weaker naira, before any of it is passed on to customers.

Extra cost = C × f × move

Example: ₦8.4m × 40% × 10% = ₦336k a month, 9.3% of gross profit.

4. The rate cut, for you

What a cut is worth on the loan, if the bank passes it on.

Monthly saving = B × cut ÷ 12

Example: ₦10m × 2% ÷ 12 = ₦17k a month. The price gap is 37 times this saving. When months since the last price rise are not answered, the tool compares one month of standing-still prices instead.

5. Election-season stress test

What a sales dip does to gross profit, and whether the cash lasts. The tool does not forecast the election; the person chooses the dip d and its length t.

Cash at end = K + [GP × (1 − d) − (R + B × i ÷ 12)] × t

Gross profit lost is GP × d × t. Cash cover is K ÷ (R + B × i ÷ 12), the months the business could run if sales stopped. If the monthly result in the dip is negative, cash runs out after K ÷ shortfall months.

Example: ₦3.6m × 20% × 2 = ₦1.44m of gross profit lost. Fixed costs are ₦2m + ₦250k interest = ₦2.25m a month, so the business still makes ₦630k a month in the dip and ends with about ₦4.3m. Cash cover is 1.3 months, under the three-month floor.

Reading	Amber when	Red when
Cash stuck	Cash cycle over 30 days	Over 60 days
Prices	3 to 5 months since a rise, or not answered	6 months or more
Naira	Move takes over 4% of gross profit	Over 10%
Rate cut	Interest takes 8% to 20% of gross profit, or not answered	Over 20%
Stress test	Cash cover under 3 months, or not answered	Under 1 month, or cash runs out in the dip

05 · Shock readiness score

Five parts worth 20 points each, out of 100

The score appears only when all five parts are answered, so a partial picture is never passed off as a score. The scenario sliders do not move it: the naira part always uses a 10% move.

Part	What it measures	Points	Example
Cash cover	Months of fixed costs the cash covers	20 × min(cover ÷ 6, 1)	1.3 months: 4.4
Cash cycle	DSO + DIO − DPO	20 − cycle ÷ 6, kept 2 to 20	60 days: 10
Naira exposure	Gross profit lost to a 10% naira move	20 × (1 − min(share ÷ 15%, 1))	9.3%: 7.6
Pricing	Months since the last price rise	20, 14, 7 or 2	6 months: 7
Debt pressure	Monthly interest as a share of gross profit	20 × (1 − min(share ÷ 40%, 1))	6.9%: 16.5

The example business totals 45.5, shown as 46: Under strain.

Band	Score
Braced	75 to 100
Exposed in places	55 to 74
Under strain	35 to 54
At risk	0 to 34

The thresholds are GrowthIntelAfrica's working judgments for this briefing, not published industry benchmarks. Six months of cover earns full marks because three months is the floor the tool recommends; the naira and debt cut-offs mark the point where one shock or one cost line takes a large share of gross profit. They will be recalibrated as room data from the briefings builds up.

06 · Three moves

Simple rules, not analysis

Small firms act on rules of thumb more reliably than on accounting training (Drexler, Fischer and Schoar 2014). Each candidate move gets an urgency weight from the person's own figures, and the three highest are shown.

Move	Offered when	Urgency weight
Adopt a price rule: review every 60 days and whenever landed cost moves 5%	Always	3.2 at 6+ months since a rise; 2.2 if not answered; 2 at 3 to 5; 0.5 at 2 or fewer
Build cash to 3 months of fixed costs	Cash and running costs answered	3.1 under 1 month of cover; 2.1 under 3 months; 0.8 otherwise
Work out your cash floor	Cash or running costs not answered	1.5
Take 10 days off customer credit	DSO above 0	3 above 45 days; 2 above 20 days; 1 otherwise
Put a review date on every dollar-linked quote	A 10% naira move takes over 2% of gross profit	2.8 above 10%; 1.6 otherwise
Ask your bank, in writing, when your loan reprices	Loan above 0	2.7 if interest takes over 20% of gross profit; 1.2 otherwise
Hold 10 fewer days of stock	Stock days above 45	2

Example: the three moves are the price rule (3.2), building cash to three months (2.1) and taking 10 days off customer credit (2).

07 · Room codes and Room Pulse

Only a code leaves the phone, and only if shared

All calculation happens in the person's browser. The only thing that ever leaves the phone is the room code, and only if the person copies it into the Zoom chat. The code carries bands and two rounded totals, never sales, margin, cash or loan figures, and it cannot be reversed into them. The example business would read SHK-R2332-46-T20-L623, but the tool issues codes only for a person's own numbers, never for the example.

The code packs: the sector letter; a cash-cycle band (1 to 4); months since a price rise (1 to 4); dollar-linked cost share (1 to 4); cash-cover band (1 to 4); the readiness score (or X if not all parts are answered); cash stuck rounded to ₦ millions (T); and the monthly price gap rounded to ₦ thousands (L). A 0 in a position means not answered.

Room Pulse, the presenter view, builds the room from the pasted chat: it finds every code, counts exact repeats once (erring toward understating the room), sums cash tied up (T) and the monthly price leak (L, among those who answered), takes the median readiness across full scores, and shows each distribution only among the people who answered that part. A rehearsal room loads 42 generated codes for practice, labelled "Rehearsal data, not real businesses" and never shown as a real room.

08 · Limits

What the tool trades for speed

A business owner gets a usable reading in three minutes from figures they know. These simplifications are deliberate, and each should be said out loud when a result is challenged.

Monthly averages. Every reading uses a normal, 30-day month. Seasonal businesses should enter a typical month, not a peak one.
Steady margin. Cost of goods moves in line with sales, so gross margin stays the same in the dip and in the price readings.
National inflation stands in for the business's own costs. Import-heavy or energy-heavy businesses may see costs rise faster; others slower. A business that repriced recently has a smaller gap than shown.
Stock and supplier balances are valued at cost of goods, not at selling price.
The naira reading ignores pass-through, hedging and restocking timing. It shows the cost before the business reacts.
The rate-cut reading assumes the bank passes on the full cut. Many loans reprice late or not at all, which is why the tool says not to budget the saving until the bank confirms it in writing.
The stress test holds running costs and interest fixed. No cost cuts, no new borrowing, no tax, and cash cover ignores money customers owe that may come in during the dip.
No forecasts. The tool does not predict the policy rate, the naira or the election. The sliders are scenarios the person chooses.
The score's thresholds are judgments, stated in full above so anyone can disagree with them on the evidence.
The economy figures are fixed in the page and checked by hand before each briefing.

None of this is accounting, tax or financial advice.