Inflation is easing — so why are your suppliers still raising prices?

Market Mood

The mood among founders lifted this week. Business confidence ticked up three points and the PMI held above 50 for a third straight month — private-sector activity is expanding. But the optimism is uneven: the businesses feeling it are the ones with pricing power, and the ones still squeezed are the ones locked into fixed supplier contracts signed at last year's rates.

Numbers That Matter

• Headline inflation: 17.8% — down 60bps, easing for a fourth month.
• PMI: 52.4 — expansion, third month running.
• Naira/USD: ₦1,380 — soft this week; imported-input costs still a watch.
• MPR: 26.25% — unchanged. Borrowing stays expensive.

Industries Winning

Technology, agriculture and healthcare score highest on the Industry Index this month — demand is holding and margin pressure is easing fastest here.

Under Pressure

Construction and hospitality sit at the bottom. Both carry heavy energy and imported-input exposure, and both are slowest to reprice.

Founder Decisions

The decision this week is a supplier conversation. Easing headline inflation does not mean your input costs fall automatically — it means the *rate of increase* is slowing. If your supplier contracts were struck at peak-inflation assumptions, you may be overpaying into a cooling market.

Two questions to ask your top three suppliers before Friday:

1. "Given inflation has eased four months running, can we revisit the pricing assumption in our current terms?"

2. "What would a 90-day price hold cost me versus a renegotiation now?"

Opportunity Radar

Businesses that import stock have a short window: if the naira stabilises and input inflation cools together, the operators who renegotiated early capture the margin before competitors notice.

Risk Radar

The single biggest risk this week is assuming the easing has reached your P&L already. It hasn't for most. Check your own numbers against the headline before you make any pricing decision.

The Prediction

We expect at least one more month of easing headline inflation before the MPC signals any move on rates — meaning the cost of borrowing stays where it is through the quarter. Plan expansion financing accordingly.

*The CEO Brief is published every Monday by GrowthIntelAfrica. Indicative analysis for decision support, not financial advice.*